benjamonky

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.076786
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? -0.054574
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? -0.317756
Feb 11, 2022 10:00PM UTC How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 0.19008
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? -0.092157
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? 0.000526
Feb 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 0.383758
Jan 31, 2022 03:38PM UTC How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.040523
Jan 31, 2022 03:35PM UTC How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 0.056174
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM UTC How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021 0.204263
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.014632
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) 0.02394
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) -0.00248
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) -0.001493
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021) -0.003097
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021) -0.002219
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