Observation & counting historical occurrences of such an event, adjusted to current geopolitical context of the region.
0.051393
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
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New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
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This forecast expired on May 11, 2024 06:14AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
Yes
Apr 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025
89%
No
Apr 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025
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