Russian elections are tightly controlled. His popularity remains high despite a disappointing war and high casualties.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-95%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
10%
(-11%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
90%
(+11%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Their direct conflict with Israel, a nuclear power, will push them them to acquire that power too.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+75%)
Yes
Russia suffers poorer than usual economics due to lagging energy exports and sanctions due to their invasion of Ukraine. However, there is no easy way to change political leaders in Russia.
Putin and many Russians want the USSR to return. The war and its results seem to be worth the effort in Russian's views. Besides a scripted election, he has the view the people want.
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You are 100% sure Putin will leave office in a little over a month? Despite the fact he just won an election? Did you accidentally misread the question?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
21%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
79%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Iran agreed to limit their enriched uranium. They have not, despite international monitoring and vague threats, as well as earlier Israel military action.
Their influence in the world will increase if they have nuclear weapons and the rest of the nuclear club have not deemed a nuclear Iran a big enough threat to act to stop them.
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