Russian elections are tightly controlled. His popularity remains high despite a disappointing war and high casualties.
0.194612
Relative Brier Score
6
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Active Forecaster
Active Forecaster
Their direct conflict with Israel, a nuclear power, will push them them to acquire that power too.
Russia suffers poorer than usual economics due to lagging energy exports and sanctions due to their invasion of Ukraine. However, there is no easy way to change political leaders in Russia.
Putin and many Russians want the USSR to return. The war and its results seem to be worth the effort in Russian's views. Besides a scripted election, he has the view the people want.
Active Forecaster
Iran agreed to limit their enriched uranium. They have not, despite international monitoring and vague threats, as well as earlier Israel military action.
Their influence in the world will increase if they have nuclear weapons and the rest of the nuclear club have not deemed a nuclear Iran a big enough threat to act to stop them.
Though a leader in AI chips, it is competing with other leading companies developing and selling AI products to the world.