brothet1

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0.194612

Relative Brier Score

6

Forecasts

0

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Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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 Definitions
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brothet1
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Though a leader in AI chips, it is competing with other leading companies developing and selling AI products to the world.

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New Prediction

Russian elections are tightly controlled. His popularity remains high despite a disappointing war and high casualties.

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brothet1
earned a new badge:

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New Prediction
brothet1
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
10% (-11%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
90% (+11%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)

Their direct conflict with Israel, a nuclear power, will push them them to acquire that power too.

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New Prediction

Russia suffers poorer than usual economics due to lagging energy exports and sanctions due to their invasion of Ukraine. However, there is no easy way to change political leaders in Russia.

Putin and many Russians want the USSR to return. The war and its results seem to be worth the effort in Russian's views. Besides a scripted election, he has the view the people want.

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DKC
made a comment:
You are 100% sure Putin will leave office in a little over a month? Despite the fact he just won an election? Did you accidentally misread the question?
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brothet1
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
brothet1
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
21%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
79%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)

Iran agreed to limit their enriched uranium. They have not, despite international monitoring and vague threats, as well as earlier Israel military action.

Their influence in the world will increase if they have nuclear weapons and the rest of the nuclear club have not deemed a nuclear Iran a big enough threat to act to stop them.

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brothet1
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Badge
brothet1
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

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