RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.00091
Feb 3, 2023 05:00AM	Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?	0.018278
Feb 2, 2023 05:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	0.004462
Feb 1, 2023 06:46PM	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	0.019411
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.006269
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.111641
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website?	0.038135
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.043551
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe?	-0.088786
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.000595
Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	-0.002241
Jan 1, 2023 04:59AM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2022 and Jan 1, 2023)	0.0
Dec 29, 2022 10:00PM	What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?	0.025764
Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM	In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022)	-0.000152
Dec 17, 2022 04:00PM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2022 and Dec 17, 2022)	0.00019
Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	-0.000317
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM	Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?	-0.097168
Nov 9, 2022 02:00PM	How many total unique AI systems will Baidu and Alibaba submit for the next round of the MLPerf benchmarking suite?	-0.36201
Nov 6, 2022 08:00PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	-0.003397
Nov 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 3, 2022 and Nov 3, 2022)	-0.000026

Date Ended

Question

Relative Brier Score

Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?

0.00091

Feb 3, 2023 05:00AM

Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?

0.018278

Feb 2, 2023 05:00AM

Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)

0.004462