RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM	Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?	0.061198
Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)	0.0
Mar 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?	0.020993
Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024)	0.0
Feb 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?	0.000767
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces?	0.303468
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	-0.000523
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?	-0.001258
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?	0.524136
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	-0.160432
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	0.030311
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?	-0.056097
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?	0.131194
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022?	0.001858
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?	0.058902
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank?	0.047755
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM	Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?	-0.02088
Jul 1, 2023 04:01AM	Will the composition of Israel's current governing coalition change before 1 July 2023?	0.023128
Jul 1, 2023 04:00AM	Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?	0.026407
Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023)	-0.000142

Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM

Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?

0.061198

Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)

0.0

Mar 1, 2024 05:00AM

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?

0.020993

Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024)

0.0