bte

Brian Edwards

1.502173

Relative Brier Score

250

Forecasts

2

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 2 5 5 277
Comments 0 2 2 2 24
Questions Forecasted 0 2 5 5 74
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 2
 Definitions
New Prediction
bte
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
10%
Moldova
2%
Armenia
2%
Georgia
1%
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?

Moldova is the most defiant and also on the brink of joining nato or at least getting the ball rolling. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Very unpredictable fellow running that place. 

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New Badge
bte
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

He has already had cancer and went into heart failure once too. Not to mention already living passed Russian life expectancy. 1% is just too low. This is not just a reflection of his power but his health also. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Putin might be a robot. 

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New Prediction

no

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New Prediction

Not happening

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New Badge
bte
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
bte
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Mar 15, 2024 10:54PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Feb 15, 2024 to Aug 15, 2024

No window of opportunity 

Files
New Comment
It is unclear to me why there is a distinction made between forecasts and comments in the numbers when a comment is required with every forecast? I would like to see how many of those comments were unique or insightful, versus how many are some variations of "calibrating for time". 
Files
New Prediction
Earthquake
Files
New Prediction
Would be big win for Bibi
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