He has already had cancer and went into heart failure once too. Not to mention already living passed Russian life expectancy. 1% is just too low. This is not just a reflection of his power but his health also.
1.662394
Relative Brier Score
22
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 277 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 82 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 74 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin might be a robot.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-20%)
Yes
no
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-12%)
Yes
Not happening
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 15, 2024 10:54PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 15, 2024 to Aug 15, 2024
No window of opportunity
Files
New Comment
It is unclear to me why there is a distinction made between forecasts and comments in the numbers when a comment is required with every forecast? I would like to see how many of those comments were unique or insightful, versus how many are some variations of "calibrating for time".
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Earthquake
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
Would be big win for Bibi
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Moldova is the most defiant and also on the brink of joining nato or at least getting the ball rolling.
Why might you be wrong?
Very unpredictable fellow running that place.