Forecasted Questions
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 14, 2024 03:24AM UTC
(10 months ago)
Jan 14, 2024 03:24AM UTC
(10 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49% | 11% | +38% | -31% |
| No | 51% | 89% | -38% | +31% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 14, 2024 03:39AM UTC
(10 months ago)
Jan 14, 2024 03:39AM UTC
(10 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | -12% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +12% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 05:05AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 05:05AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 20% | 9% | +11% | +1% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 50% | 7% | +43% | -9% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 06:17AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 06:17AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 1% | 1% | +0% | -3% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 99% | 99% | 0% | +3% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 06:19AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 06:19AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 1% | +9% | -5% |
| No | 90% | 99% | -9% | +5% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 04, 2024 08:46PM UTC
(9 months ago)
Feb 04, 2024 08:46PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 1% | +49% | -9% |
| No | 50% | 99% | -49% | +9% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2024 05:06AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Feb 05, 2024 05:06AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 2% | 1% | +1% | -1% |
| Oman | 8% | 2% | +6% | -1% |
| Qatar | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| Saudi Arabia | 10% | 2% | +8% | -3% |
| Tunisia | 13% | 1% | +12% | -1% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2024 05:07AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Feb 05, 2024 05:07AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 1% | +11% | -4% |
| No | 88% | 99% | -11% | +4% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2024 05:11AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Feb 05, 2024 05:11AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 1% | +8% | -2% |
| No | 91% | 99% | -8% | +2% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2024 05:18AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Feb 05, 2024 05:18AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 0% | +5% | -5% |
| No | 95% | 100% | -5% | +5% |