btv

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 Definitions
New Prediction
btv
made their 4th forecast (view all):
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Answer
0% (0%)
Yes
100% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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btv
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Answer
Forecast Window
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Yes
Mar 28, 2025 to Sep 28, 2025
100% (0%)
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Mar 28, 2025 to Sep 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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Star Commenter - Feb 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

wow. no one in this century will allow something in their body that hasn't been tested on animals (i.e. other biological systems where unknown variables are already set at some "ground truth" level that, at best, barely approximates the conditions needed for life in a different species...) 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

those desperate enough to allow this into their bodies succumb to the implicit will of an in increasingly research-oriented medical establishment. 

...or china does it first.

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DKC
made a comment:

No one????

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2023-07-13/did-americans-actually-drink-bleach-during-the-covid-19-pandemic

FTA:  Poison centers did, after all, report an uptick in calls for exposure to cleaning and disinfectant supplies during 2020. But it likely means the numbers are significantly smaller than previously reported.

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New Prediction
btv
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-50%)
Yes
100% (+50%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

just updating

Files
Why might you be wrong?

just updating

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

No

Way

Period.


the level of elitism this would engender (assuming it worked as advertised, i.e. to allow for faster "thought" or direct interfacing with databases or even less profound integration with electronics/data) would be insanity, and that's bad enough as it is.

more importantly, the entire ethical underpinning for offering BCIs to less able-bodied individuals is that they're "in need" (and "we need that data!"); I think changing that rationale will take a movement of some kind that I imagine is on the scale of >>5 years not even considering FDA approval rates or timelines.

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Why might you be wrong?

...if this conversation has already been happening unbeknownst to me and if elon musk can massage the federal government for his own purposes steadily enough to make this happen asap-er.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

my understanding of these (neurodegenerative) issues is that they're heavily based on not getting enough oxygen to the most distal (from capillaries) tissues, which leads to damage, which leads to complex systems falling apart and thus inflammation to clean it up; if that's right, then yeah there's a ton of overlap in the latter part of the problem, but I think i'd expect drugs to go the other way seeing as TBI is more general than and shares later processes with a specific neurodegenerative disease...

anyway, mostly yes, but that does depend on well-funded research and/or some spunky AI up-and-comers

plus there's no re-predicting, so i'll go all-in.



Files
Why might you be wrong?

"that does depend on well-funded research and/or some spunky AI up-and-comers"

Files
New Prediction
btv
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (-22%)
Implantable Devices
7% (-5%)
Environmental Sensors
90% (+27%)
Personal Electronics
0% (0%)
Advanced Computing
Why do you think you're right?

I saw a lot of "less regulatory hurdles" for environmental sensors, and although I can't imagine people wanting to live in a world attuned to every fish's fart, I'd forgotten my favorite doomsday scenario in which our phones are co-opted to spy on our environments....even more so. So if personal electronics start becoming environmental sensors, there's even more definitions to worry about. (so i weighted it more heavily against my other contender)


...also reduced implantables because who wants implantables when you can just wear it? not I.


but this question is actually "which will win more money this decade?", and since i don't plan on re-predicting, I'm confident enough in personal bioelectronics to go with it.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

I won't be wrong.

maybe because i didn't forecast personal electronics at 100%...that may be wrong.

also, aside from jk above, I still think the definitions will become a real problem somewhere between 5-10 years.

...or we realize DNA has been broadcasting in high def for eras.


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