RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?	0.038314
Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023)	0.000658
Jun 01, 2023 12:45AM UTC	On 31 May 2023, how many total tax incentives will be listed in the Alternative Fuels Data Center?	-0.055124
May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023)	0.00462
May 15, 2023 05:45PM UTC	Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023?	0.000012
May 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC	What will Ginkgo Bioworks foundry revenue be in the first quarter of 2023?	-0.205992
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	0.002063
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	-0.063416
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?	0.150957
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	0.583734
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	0.278049
Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM UTC	What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023?	-0.066772
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.275298
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023)	-0.000137
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?	0.14096
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	0.016587
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?	0.6212
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	0.129488
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023)	0.0
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	0.033876

btv

About: