Confirmed previous forecast
5.882767
Relative Brier Score
696
Forecasts
84
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 146 | 58 | 1845 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 331 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 61 | 37 | 246 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 229 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - May 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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Top Forecaster - Apr 2024
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Oracle - Bronze
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 3 months in a row.
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Top Forecaster - Mar 2024
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Top Forecaster - Feb 2024
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New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Mar 5, 2024 05:18AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 5, 2024 to Aug 5, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
This forecast expired on May 5, 2024 05:12AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 5, 2024 to Aug 5, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Feb 5, 2024 to Aug 5, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-1%)
Yes
91%
(+1%)
No
down 1% a month until oct
Files