27th
Accuracy Rank

cassandra

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Forecasted Questions

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:19PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025 Dec 24, 2024 0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:19PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 5% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 5% 6%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:25PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 6% 1%
No 94% 99%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 08, 2024 12:02PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Oct 8, 2024 to Apr 8, 2026 Jan 8, 2025 12%
No 98% Oct 8, 2024 to Apr 8, 2026 Jan 8, 2025 88%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 08, 2024 12:11PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Argentina 20% 18%
Bolivia 25% 21%
Ecuador 15% 12%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2024 01:11PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 8%
No 90% 92%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 01:03PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 32% Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 24%
No 68% Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 76%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?​

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 07:11PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 27%
No 99% 73%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 01:05PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 24% 0% 0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% 0% 1%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% 7% 5%
More than or equal to 28% 93% 94%
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