Forecasted Questions
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:19PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 24, 2024 03:19PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025 | Dec 24, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:19PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 24, 2024 03:19PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 5% | 9% | -4% | -3% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 5% | 6% | -1% | -1% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 24, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:25PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 24, 2024 03:25PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 6% | 1% | +5% | +0% |
No | 94% | 99% | -5% | +0% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 08, 2024 12:02PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 08, 2024 12:02PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | Oct 8, 2024 to Apr 8, 2026 | Jan 8, 2025 | 12% | -10% | -5% |
No | 98% | Oct 8, 2024 to Apr 8, 2026 | Jan 8, 2025 | 88% | +10% | +5% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 08, 2024 12:11PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 08, 2024 12:11PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina | 20% | 18% | +2% | -5% |
Bolivia | 25% | 21% | +4% | -9% |
Ecuador | 15% | 12% | +3% | -1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2024 01:11PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Oct 20, 2024 01:11PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 8% | +2% | -6% |
No | 90% | 92% | -2% | +6% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 01:03PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 22, 2024 01:03PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 32% | Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025 | Nov 22, 2024 | 24% | +8% | -6% |
No | 68% | Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025 | Nov 22, 2024 | 76% | -8% | +6% |
Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 07:11PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 22, 2024 07:11PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 27% | -26% | -23% |
No | 99% | 73% | +26% | +23% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 01:05PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 24, 2024 01:05PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 1% | -1% | +1% |
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 7% | 5% | +2% | -3% |
More than or equal to 28% | 93% | 94% | -1% | +2% |