RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:19PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Dec 24, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:19PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	5%	9%	-4%	-2%
Su-35 fighter jets	5%	7%	-2%	-1%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:25PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	1%	+5%	+0%
No	94%	99%	-5%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 08, 2024 12:02PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Oct 8, 2024 to Apr 8, 2026	Jan 8, 2025	7%	-5%	-10%
No	98%	Oct 8, 2024 to Apr 8, 2026	Jan 8, 2025	93%	+5%	+10%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 08, 2024 12:11PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	20%	20%	+0%	-3%
Bolivia	25%	23%	+2%	-7%
Ecuador	15%	12%	+3%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2024 01:11PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	11%	-1%	-4%
No	90%	89%	+1%	+4%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 01:03PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	32%	Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025	Nov 22, 2024	25%	+7%	-5%
No	68%	Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025	Nov 22, 2024	75%	-7%	+5%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 07:11PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	32%	-31%	-18%
No	99%	68%	+31%	+18%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 01:05PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	7%	6%	+1%	-2%
More than or equal to 28%	93%	92%	+1%	+0%

cassandra

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