I think it might happen soon, but not by 1 Dec.
0.019694
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 1211 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 739 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 165 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 330 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-8%)
Yes
98%
(+8%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-2%)
Yes
96%
(+2%)
No
Passage of time.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 27, 2024 02:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 27, 2024 to May 27, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 27, 2024 to May 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 27, 2024 02:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 27, 2024 to May 27, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Nov 27, 2024 to May 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 27, 2024 02:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 27, 2024 to May 27, 2025
96%
(0%)
No
Nov 27, 2024 to May 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
5%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 27, 2025 02:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 27, 2024 to May 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Time passing
Why might you be wrong?
Global macro env