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costelloi

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Microsoft will not close its AI Research Lab in China because China supplies a large amount of technological capital for a low price. This capital is useful for Microsoft's production. Additionally, the presence of Microsoft's AI Research Lab is a pillar of US enterprise strength in Asia, and its removal could have political implications. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Political forces may force Microsoft to remove its location there. This may be in order to declare economic independence from China. 

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New Prediction
costelloi
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Apr 15, 2024 07:32PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30% (0%)
Yes
Mar 15, 2024 to Sep 15, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
costelloi
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Apr 15, 2024 07:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Mar 15, 2024 to Sep 15, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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costelloi
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
costelloi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Mar 4, 2024 07:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Feb 4, 2024 to Aug 4, 2024
Why do you think you're right?

The People's Liberation Army may not invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months due to impending trade relations with the United States. As China and the US continue to expand their trade relationship and the dollar remains the prominent reserve currency, China will not invade Taiwan. However, depending on the results of the US election and the progress of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China may invade Taiwan. 

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Why might you be wrong?
The People's Liberation Army may invade Taiwan if the US fails to reassert its dominance in foreign affairs. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues and results in a Russian victory or land acquisition, China may feel enticed to invade. 
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New Prediction
costelloi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Dec 11, 2023 06:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
Yes
Nov 11, 2023 to Dec 11, 2023
Why do you think you're right?

Israel and Hamas may agree to a ceasefire next month because the United States (and other allied countries) will view the war as too costly. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Israel and Hamas may not agree to a ceasefire next month because the US will continue to view Israel as a strategic ally in the Middle East. 

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VRL
made a comment:
@costelloi  would you mind elaborating? your forecast goes pretty strongly against the current crowd consensus!
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costelloi
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Active Forecaster

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costelloi
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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costelloi
earned a new badge:

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New Prediction
costelloi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 21, 2023 05:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Oct 21, 2023 to Apr 21, 2024
Why do you think you're right?

No, Israel does not have the capacity to destroy Iranian nuclear or missile-related facilities as the facilities are strategically located among terrain that is tough to navigate. Also, Israel does not have the weapon capacity to make an effective attack. 

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Why might you be wrong?
My forecast may be wrong if Hezbollah decides to make an attack on Israel and Israel retaliates by attacking Iranian nuclear facilities in an effort to weaken Iran and therefore weaken Hezbollah. 
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