Confirmed previous forecast
0.352889
Relative Brier Score
7
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
30%
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Yes, as tensions between Israel and Iran are escalating. Given also that Israel has already attacked facilities.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Microsoft will not close its AI Research Lab in China because China supplies a large amount of technological capital for a low price. This capital is useful for Microsoft's production. Additionally, the presence of Microsoft's AI Research Lab is a pillar of US enterprise strength in Asia, and its removal could have political implications.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Political forces may force Microsoft to remove its location there. This may be in order to declare economic independence from China.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 15, 2024 07:32PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 15, 2024 to Sep 15, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 15, 2024 07:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 15, 2024 to Sep 15, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 4, 2024 07:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Feb 4, 2024 to Aug 4, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
The People's Liberation Army may not invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months due to impending trade relations with the United States. As China and the US continue to expand their trade relationship and the dollar remains the prominent reserve currency, China will not invade Taiwan. However, depending on the results of the US election and the progress of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China may invade Taiwan.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The People's Liberation Army may invade Taiwan if the US fails to reassert its dominance in foreign affairs. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues and results in a Russian victory or land acquisition, China may feel enticed to invade.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
Putin may be well physically.