Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:09PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Nov 18, 2024 03:09PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 95% | +3% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:10PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Nov 18, 2024 03:10PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:11PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Nov 18, 2024 03:11PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 8% | -3% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 92% | +3% | +1% |