-0.010757
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 164 |
Comments | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 83 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 42 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 32 |
Definitions |



Why do you think you're right?
I think DeepSeek's new model is interesting in that it's able to generate very high quality outputs while requiring substantially less compute. If the gains scale up, it seems plausible that they could build a bigger model that utilizes the same architecture with more data that's even better.
Why might you be wrong?

Why do you think you're right?
We're currently on-pace for about 78 cases by 30 Sept 2025, but since the election got pushed up to February, I'm anticipating a drop-off in disinformation after the elections. While a coalition with the AfD is possible, the most likely scenarios seem to be the CDU/CSU forming a coalition government with the SPD or Greens.
I'm not sure how much value there's going to be in pushing disinformation stories after the election, so I expect the number to drop as attention turns away from the Germany/the election.
Why might you be wrong?
If the incoming government is more anti-Russian/pro-Ukraine as I expect, it could lead to them doing things that provoke more disinfo in response.
Also, as the AfD is likely to win the second most seats, there may be cause to bolster their image in the public eye, which could push the count up even more.

haven't updated this in a while (whoops). The situation has only gotten worse, so I'm not optimistic.

passage of time

Decreasing as that there's not much time left in the year. I do think there's still a decent probability that it happens in the medium term, but I'm not sure why this would happen before 2025 at this point.