Thanks all for your feedback. We've updated the question to remove the requirement that the ceasefire hold for 30 days to avoid ambiguity. Instead, the question will resolve as "Yes" if a ceasefire is agreed to, regardless of whether or not it's broken later.
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
2
Forecasts
0
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 164 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 83 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 42 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 32 |
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New Comment
Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire before 1 October 2025?
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New Question Suggested
Mar 4, 2025 10:12PM
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 21, 2025 03:56PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Jan 21, 2025 to Jan 21, 2026
50%
No
Jan 21, 2025 to Jan 21, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I think DeepSeek's new model is interesting in that it's able to generate very high quality outputs while requiring substantially less compute. If the gains scale up, it seems plausible that they could build a bigger model that utilizes the same architecture with more data that's even better.
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Why might you be wrong?
U.S. frontier models (e.g., o3) continue to get better as well and could seriously outpace DeepSeek's development.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Less than or equal to 59
40%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
30%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
10%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
5%
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
We're currently on-pace for about 78 cases by 30 Sept 2025, but since the election got pushed up to February, I'm anticipating a drop-off in disinformation after the elections. While a coalition with the AfD is possible, the most likely scenarios seem to be the CDU/CSU forming a coalition government with the SPD or Greens.
I'm not sure how much value there's going to be in pushing disinformation stories after the election, so I expect the number to drop as attention turns away from the Germany/the election.
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Why might you be wrong?
If the incoming government is more anti-Russian/pro-Ukraine as I expect, it could lead to them doing things that provoke more disinfo in response.
Also, as the AfD is likely to win the second most seats, there may be cause to bolster their image in the public eye, which could push the count up even more.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-66%)
Yes
95%
(+66%)
No
haven't updated this in a while (whoops). The situation has only gotten worse, so I'm not optimistic.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
passage of time
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-11%)
Yes
98%
(+11%)
No
Decreasing as that there's not much time left in the year. I do think there's still a decent probability that it happens in the medium term, but I'm not sure why this would happen before 2025 at this point.
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