Forecasted Questions
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:04PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 03:04PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 8% | -3% | -5% |
| No | 95% | 92% | +3% | +5% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 65% | 34% | +31% | +14% |
| No | 35% | 66% | -31% | -14% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 95% | +2% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:13PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 03:13PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 24% | -17% | -8% |
| No | 93% | Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025 | Nov 29, 2024 | 76% | +17% | +8% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 1% | 3% | -2% | -1% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Odesa | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |