Forecasted Questions
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 02:18AM
(22 days ago)
Feb 28, 2025 02:18AM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025 | Mar 28, 2025 02:18AM | 2% | -1% | +1% |
| No | 99% | Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025 | Mar 28, 2025 02:18AM | 98% | +1% | -1% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 02:18AM
(22 days ago)
Feb 28, 2025 02:18AM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2026 | May 28, 2025 02:18AM | 10% | -6% | +2% |
| No | 96% | Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2026 | May 28, 2025 02:18AM | 90% | +6% | -2% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 02:18AM
(22 days ago)
Feb 28, 2025 02:18AM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 1% | 7% | -6% | +1% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 02:18AM
(22 days ago)
Feb 28, 2025 02:18AM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 02:22AM
(22 days ago)
Feb 28, 2025 02:22AM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 9% | +1% | -7% |
| No | 90% | 91% | -1% | +7% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 02:22AM
(22 days ago)
Feb 28, 2025 02:22AM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 03:15AM
(22 days ago)
Feb 28, 2025 03:15AM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 9% | 2% | 0% | +2% | +0% |
| Between 10% and 19%, inclusive | 7% | 6% | +1% | -4% |
| Between 20% and 29%, inclusive | 59% | 81% | -22% | +2% |
| Between 30% and 39%, inclusive | 30% | 12% | +18% | +2% |
| More than or equal to 40% | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |