SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.
 

ddarden

About:
Show more

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 1 0 1
Comments 0 0 1 0 1
Questions Forecasted 0 0 1 0 1
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 0 1
 Definitions
New Prediction

His probability of dying from health-related causes is one area of concern. I would say that it is the greatest concern over a state-sponsored event that would eliminate him as President. He could also face political opposition from citizens, which is only going to grow stronger as the war continues, but he will have enough reserve forces to quell an uprising. Since the date requested is 1 May 2024 the probability is higher. 

Files
ddarden
made a comment:
Well I misread the question. I would put my vote down to 20%. 
Files
New Badge
ddarden
earned a new badge:

Upvotes Received

New Badge
ddarden
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Badge
ddarden
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username