0.465977
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
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His probability of dying from health-related causes is one area of concern. I would say that it is the greatest concern over a state-sponsored event that would eliminate him as President. He could also face political opposition from citizens, which is only going to grow stronger as the war continues, but he will have enough reserve forces to quell an uprising. Since the date requested is 1 May 2024 the probability is higher.