Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
15
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 7 | 66 | 15 | 66 |
| Comments | 1 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast will expire on Apr 16, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
47%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025
53%
(0%)
No
Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-1%)
Yes
95%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-1%)
Yes
94%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-1%)
Yes
93%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
adjustment
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-1%)
Yes
92%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Recalculation and passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Volatility
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Mar 18, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
47%
(-2%)
Yes
Feb 18, 2025 to Aug 18, 2025
53%
(+2%)
No
Feb 18, 2025 to Aug 18, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
small adjustment
Files
Why might you be wrong?
volatility
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(0%)
Yes
91%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
