devaron3

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Relative Brier Score
1363000.511.522.53
Questions Forecasted

15

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 2 7 66 15 66
Comments 1 5 10 10 10
Questions Forecasted 2 3 5 3 5
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Prediction
devaron3
made their 15th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
47% (0%)
Yes
Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025
53% (0%)
No
Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
devaron3
made their 24th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5% (-1%)
Yes
95% (+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

passage of time

Files
Why might you be wrong?

.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
devaron3
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
devaron3
made their 23rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
6% (-1%)
Yes
94% (+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Passage of time

Files
Why might you be wrong?

.

Files
New Prediction
devaron3
made their 22nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
7% (-1%)
Yes
93% (+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

adjustment

Files
Why might you be wrong?

.

Files
New Prediction
devaron3
made their 21st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
8% (-1%)
Yes
92% (+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Recalculation and passage of time

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Volatility

Files
New Prediction
devaron3
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
47% (-2%)
Yes
Feb 18, 2025 to Aug 18, 2025
53% (+2%)
No
Feb 18, 2025 to Aug 18, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

small adjustment

Files
Why might you be wrong?

volatility

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
devaron3
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

Files
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