Confirmed previous forecast
-0.018869
Relative Brier Score
38
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 13 | 38 | 38 | 38 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
63%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025
37%
(0%)
No
Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(+20%)
Yes
55%
(-20%)
No
Coming up significantly due to election results.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Updating based on time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
63%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025
37%
(0%)
No
Nov 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(+7%)
Yes
75%
(-7%)
No
Still so much time to go...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(+3%)
Yes
82%
(-3%)
No
Slight adjustment toward the crowd.
Files