Slight adjustment toward the crowd.
-0.018869
Relative Brier Score
31
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 14 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(+3%)
Yes
82%
(-3%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95%
(+15%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
5%
(-15%)
No
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
Analysis of recent attacks show it may be resolved.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
63%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
37%
(0%)
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(+6%)
Yes
85%
(-6%)
No
Ultimately it is still unlikely, but the volatility makes it possible on a given day this far off...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
(-5%)
Yes
Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025
20%
(+5%)
No
Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025
Reducing based on new info
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(0%)
Yes
91%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Still so much time to go...