Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
15
Forecasts
0
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Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 7 | 66 | 15 | 66 |
| Comments | 1 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
47%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025
53%
(0%)
No
Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-1%)
Yes
95%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-1%)
Yes
94%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-1%)
Yes
93%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
adjustment
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-1%)
Yes
92%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Recalculation and passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Volatility
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
47%
(-2%)
Yes
Feb 18, 2025 to Aug 18, 2025
53%
(+2%)
No
Feb 18, 2025 to Aug 18, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
small adjustment
Files
Why might you be wrong?
volatility
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(0%)
Yes
91%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
