Current events make this unlikely given the state of emergency that has recently been issued.
2.886639
Relative Brier Score
61
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Japan
46%
The Netherlands
32%
South Korea
5%
Any other country not listed
Japan seems likely based on the meeting with Biden last week and the readouts that came from that. Netherlands is more of a toss-up given the post meeting remarks. Passage of time as well has to be factored into this equation. This could take 2+ months to finalize the exact wording of any potential agreement.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
Yes
Unlikely, but a reasonable chance of an assassination or a coup attempt over this period of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
I think this is unlikely, but due to the short resolution time period for this question, I think the variance is much higher. China could have launches that are not publicly available on any schedule yet as well.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+2%)
Yes
I think what is most likely is that they will reduce some restrictions, but a complete reversal of the "zero-covid" policy by the end of this month is unlikely.
Files
Passage of time plus no "new" news on this topic of the last month. Has not happened in the last 6 years either, so it would take a massive change over the next 60 days for this to resolve yes.