RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 31, 2024 11:13AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	30%	33%	-3%	-14%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	60%	64%	-4%	+36%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	10%	3%	+7%	-22%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2024 08:25PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	39%	+1%	-6%
No	60%	61%	-1%	+6%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2024 11:48PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025	Jan 1, 2025	21%	-1%	-1%
No	80%	Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025	Jan 1, 2025	79%	+1%	+1%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2024 11:32AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	Oct 20, 2024 to Apr 20, 2025	Jan 20, 2025	5%	+11%	-1%
No	84%	Oct 20, 2024 to Apr 20, 2025	Jan 20, 2025	95%	-11%	+1%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2024 11:32AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	Oct 20, 2024 to Apr 20, 2025	Nov 20, 2024	6%	+10%	-4%
No	84%	Oct 20, 2024 to Apr 20, 2025	Nov 20, 2024	94%	-10%	+4%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2024 11:35AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	99%	99%	0%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2024 11:57AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	44%	28%	+16%	+13%
No	56%	72%	-16%	-13%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 06:11PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025	Jan 26, 2025	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 06:12PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	2%	2%	+0%	0%
Latvia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	2%	1%	+1%	0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 06:15PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025	Jan 26, 2025	8%	+2%	-1%
No	90%	Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025	Jan 26, 2025	92%	-2%	+1%

efosong

About: