RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 31, 2024 11:13AM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	30%	32%	-2%	-15%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	60%	65%	-5%	+37%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	10%	3%	+7%	-22%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2024 08:25PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	35%	+5%	-10%
No	60%	65%	-5%	+10%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2024 11:48PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025	Jan 1, 2025	22%	-2%	+0%
No	80%	Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025	Jan 1, 2025	78%	+2%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2024 11:32AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	Oct 20, 2024 to Apr 20, 2025	Jan 20, 2025	4%	+12%	-2%
No	84%	Oct 20, 2024 to Apr 20, 2025	Jan 20, 2025	96%	-12%	+2%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2024 11:35AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 06:11PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025	Jan 26, 2025	0%	+0%	0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 06:12PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Latvia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	2%	2%	+0%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 06:15PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025	Jan 26, 2025	12%	-2%	+4%
No	90%	Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025	Jan 26, 2025	88%	+2%	-4%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 06:16PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	1%	+2%	+0%
No	97%	99%	-2%	+0%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 06:18PM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	38%	36%	+2%	-1%
No	62%	64%	-2%	+1%

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