RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 20, 2020 01:16PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.017579
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?	-0.049596
Oct 01, 2020 06:17PM UTC	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.020547
Oct 01, 2020 02:37PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.001013
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	0.001424
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	-0.023037
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM UTC	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	-0.281172
Sep 01, 2020 01:31PM UTC	Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?	-0.009324
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?	0.009435
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?	-0.002317

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