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Forecasted Questions
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Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 23, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 12% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 5% 7%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 23, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 5%
No 95% 95%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 23, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 1% 2%
Oman 2% 2%
Qatar 1% 1%
Saudi Arabia 5% 3%
Tunisia 1% 1%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 23, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025 Dec 23, 2024 0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 23, 2024 01:56AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 0%
No 98% 100%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 23, 2024 01:58AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 1%
No 97% 99%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 23, 2024 01:58AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 1%
No 97% 99%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 23, 2024 02:00AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 24, 2024 11:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 90% Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025 Oct 24, 2024 86%
No 10% Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025 Oct 24, 2024 14%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 10:21PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 85% Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025 Oct 27, 2024 87%
No 15% Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025 Oct 27, 2024 13%
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