RAND Forecasting Initiative

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 02:00AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 10:57PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+0%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	5%	+2%	+0%
No	93%	95%	-2%	+0%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2024 09:07PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	Oct 7, 2024 to Oct 7, 2025	Nov 7, 2024	25%	+10%	-54%
No	65%	Oct 7, 2024 to Oct 7, 2025	Nov 7, 2024	75%	-10%	+54%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2024 09:16PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	Oct 7, 2024 to Oct 7, 2025	Jan 7, 2025	21%	+4%	-8%
No	75%	Oct 7, 2024 to Oct 7, 2025	Jan 7, 2025	79%	-4%	+8%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 07, 2024 09:29PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	5%	0%	+5%	-5%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	35%	19%	+16%	-14%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	55%	72%	-17%	+16%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	5%	8%	-3%	+3%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2024 10:39AM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	Oct 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025	Nov 15, 2024	18%	+2%	-14%
No	80%	Oct 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025	Nov 15, 2024	82%	-2%	+14%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2024 10:55AM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Oct 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025	Nov 15, 2024	15%	+0%	+0%
No	85%	Oct 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025	Nov 15, 2024	85%	+0%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 07:17AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	9%	+1%	+1%
No	90%	91%	-1%	-1%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 07:30AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	17%	12%	+5%	-1%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	45%	55%	-10%	+2%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	35%	31%	+4%	-1%
More than or equal to 80	2%	2%	+0%	+0%

fionack

About: