Upping this even more due to tariff’s with China especially. The hope is it will be resolved but the situation is not looking great and could have lasting impacts on NVIDIA and other US companies even if it is resolved.
-0.207533
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
44
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 26 | 212 | 44 | 974 |
| Comments | 2 | 14 | 37 | 31 | 472 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 22 | 63 | 29 | 249 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 78 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Yes
95%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Market swings and uncertainty under Trump - it could swing back up as was shown this week, but I don’t see it lasting unless the China Tariff situation is resolved.
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Mar 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(-12%)
Yes
55%
(+12%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Decreasing slightly to be closer to the crowd and appreciate @Rene's rationale. May move down even further as time passes due to that rationale but am curious to see if there is any other news or power shifts likely due to the actions and unpredictable influence of Trump.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps I should be more cautious and go higher on No, but there is still a good amount of time for things to change
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Less than or equal to 9%
15%
(-10%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
75%
(+10%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
10%
(+5%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting to put more in the middle bucket, and also putting slightly more emphasis on the higher net perception, due to recent backlash in Germany around Trump and Trump's relationship with Russia and the threat it poses to Europe (and the insults lodged at Ukraine). However, this could also result in serious shifts of power and an unfavorable end to the war which could make Ukraine increase as a threat before the end of the year...
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I initial misread the question and may be misunderstanding the "net perception" since higher doesn't necessarily have to be a positive thing?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-15%)
Togo
35%
(-5%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?
Decreasing Togo slightly closer to crowd in part due to US-Russia communication and stability in Togo. However, the US moving away from international aid (and perhaps other presences) could leave space or encourage Russia to move in and have even more of influence? Not sure at this point but I am more inclined towards a lower chance of this happening than I had before.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As mentioned in forecast, perhaps there is a power vaccum to be filled if the US pulls out other operations, but then again that may de-incentivize action. Also pulling out of aid doesn't mean US presence will be removed completely I suppose
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
7%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
26%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
51%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
15%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I feel I was way too optimistic considering talks have not gone well or changed anything yet. Economic turmoil is also taking precedence over any kind of peace talks. For now, increasing quite a bit into this not happening this year.
Why might you be wrong?
Unpredictability of Trump’s actions and uncertainty over how economic turmoil and a trade war with China may change Russia’s strategy, including somehow leading to a halt in the war.