All the news points to this being a war - multiple large strikes by Israel. Holding out 5% in case Israel doesn’t claim it is a war?
-0.09358
Relative Brier Score
179
Forecasts
12
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(+30%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
10%
(-30%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Yes
98%
(+3%)
No
Passage of time and there don’t seem to be any consequences to them violating the deal (if the violation even is noticed/reported)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
With passage of time it just seems more unlikely to be discovered if it does occur.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Kuwait
2%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
5%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
This seems as likely as the 6month version of this question - if it doesn’t happen now it doesn’t seem likely later… there has been so much escalation recently and concern from the US as indicated by them sending troops to Cyprus… maybe sending those troops will deter more aggression but seems very unlikely.