Confirmed previous forecast
-0.054614
Relative Brier Score
201
Forecasts
13
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 13 | 227 | 201 | 896 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 435 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 11 | 80 | 64 | 237 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 16 | 13 | 72 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(0%)
Odesa
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(-5%)
Yes
Nov 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2025
70%
(+5%)
No
Nov 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2025
Decreasing forecast slightly, there’s a chance due to Chinese capacity in AI generally, but it’s a relatively small one considering how many strong US based companies are still developing and continually making improvements.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(-7%)
Yes
82%
(+7%)
No
Decreasing closer to the crowd with passage of time and question clarifications.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Confirming my forecast for now, though I am slightly above the crowd but with Trump as president he’s more likely to remove troops than provide support it seems, thus increasing this probability. Then again, things can change quickly and he is unpredictable…
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Initial forecast based on my sense that this kind of fracturing or loss of control is generally extreme and thus less likely than 50% of occurring. However, the fighting and potentially waning US support is concerning, and the timeframe is long. If the situation worsens maybe US support will increase but it’s hard to say. Overall, there seems to be a more than decent chance of this occurring in more than a year. May adjust down with passage of time if the situation doesn’t worsen…
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(-20%)
Yes
75%
(+20%)
No
Decreasing further with passage of time and no promising new numbers. There’s still a chance of a few being discovered/added at once but it’s looking more and more unlikely
Files
I still don’t think their dominance will last, both due to the AI hype dying down and competitors with alternate energy sources coming about eventually, but perhaps this will happen too slowly for this question. One positive signal for NVIDIA from this week is Musk investing heavily in AI driving competition with OpenAI, and buying NVIDIA chips: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/15/elon-musks-xai-raising-up-to-6-billion-to-purchase-100000-nvidia-chips-for-memphis-data-center.html?utm_campaign=mb&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=morning_brew