RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 20, 2023 03:52PM UTC	Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022?	-0.02439
Apr 20, 2023 03:23PM UTC	What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022?	0.006905
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM UTC	How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?	0.001854
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	-0.026047
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022?	-0.024648
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Which country or union will have the second most citations of "high impact" AI scientific publications in 2022?	-0.022414
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022?	-0.000031
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Which country will have published the second most "high impact" journal articles on artificial intelligence in 2022?	0.080355
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most "high impact" AI research publications?	0.031742
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	-0.000166
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	0.008455
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	0.015923
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	0.002326
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	0.00294
Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023?	-0.029326
Mar 21, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How much will On Running earn in net sales from shoes in Q4 2022?	-0.01463
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.003354
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC	On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?	-0.031404
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	-0.00001
Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM UTC	What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022?	0.030972

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