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fionack

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Apr 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? -0.040256
Mar 16, 2022 04:00PM UTC In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial? -0.064958
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021? 0.199499
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? -0.282194
Feb 24, 2022 03:00PM UTC What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022? -0.03746
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022) 0.019823
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? -0.131191
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? -0.024799
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM UTC How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021 -0.00658
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.0049
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.000106
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.000581
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021? 0.100092
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021? -0.038096
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) 0.006667
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) 0.00176
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) 0.00158
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.019355
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.001384
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.002203
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