Russias economy is failing, their military equipment is outdated and failing. i find it unlikely that they will have the have the ability to expand that far
0.004117
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Kharkiv
3%
Kyiv
23%
Odesa
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
This is based on the potential for significant geopolitical events or supply chain disruptions. The historical precedent shows that prices can spike dramatically
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
(0%)
Yes
77%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
Yes
77%
No
higher chance would require a trigger of some sort, like public outcry, legislation, a big breakthrough in AI etc.
Files
very low chance due to subjugated populus and authortarian control