Russias economy is failing, their military equipment is outdated and failing. i find it unlikely that they will have the have the ability to expand that far
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Kharkiv
3%
Kyiv
23%
Odesa
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
This is based on the potential for significant geopolitical events or supply chain disruptions. The historical precedent shows that prices can spike dramatically
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
(0%)
Yes
77%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
Yes
77%
No
higher chance would require a trigger of some sort, like public outcry, legislation, a big breakthrough in AI etc.
Files
very low chance due to subjugated populus and authortarian control