RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 01, 2023 09:00PM UTC	How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?	-0.011103
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will 50 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in India?	-0.012181
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC	Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?	0.053289
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC	Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?	-0.002441
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	-0.000854
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.025789
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023)	-0.000242
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	-0.000166
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023)	0.0
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	-0.000092
Mar 19, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023?	-0.038308
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.004089
Jan 03, 2023 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 3, 2022 and Jan 3, 2023)	0.000181

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