Reduction with time
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 512 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 305 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 98 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-29%)
Yes
95%
(+29%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-4%)
Yes
100%
(+4%)
No
Not happening.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
34%
(-23%)
Yes
66%
(+23%)
No
With crowd
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 14, 2024 01:54AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(-2%)
Yes
Sep 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025
92%
(+2%)
No
Sep 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025
With crowd
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 14, 2024 01:52AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-3%)
Yes
Sep 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025
100%
(+3%)
No
Sep 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025
Down with crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
No incentive to change paradigm.
Why might you be wrong?
Putin is crazy.