They are in NATO. Russia cannot overcome Ukraine and the NATO countries would be too tough to crack.
0.0
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Estonia
1%
Latvia
1%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Vlad can forget to take his antipsychotics.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Moldova
1%
Armenia
1%
Georgia
1%
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Ukraine war showed that such war effort is not worth it for Russia + it will loose local allies in the region.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Vlad may be insane enough to invade other neighbours.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Kharkiv
1%
Kyiv
6%
Odesa
Why do you think you're right?
There is no evidence that such offensive is possible. And this spring attempts show it.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
We do not really know what Vlad might have up his sleeve,
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-95%)
Yes
There's no evidence that any other candidate may take the first place in the presidential run. And there is no sign that any street activities would prevent Putin to continue being a president.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
Yes
There's no evidence that any other candidate may take the first place in the presidential run. And there is no sign that any street activities would prevent Putin to continue being a president.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
No sign of anything that could lead to that.
Why might you be wrong?
All men are mortal.