A blockade of Taiwan would aggravate China's domestic financial problems and only increase the cynicism many Chinese feel about Xi's political strategy. Xi is smart enough to avoid that.
0.57689
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 7, 2024 06:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Aug 7, 2024 to Feb 7, 2025
100%
No
Aug 7, 2024 to Feb 7, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Kuwait
2%
(-3%)
Oman
0%
(-7%)
Qatar
5%
(-15%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
1. Although Biden will try to broker a deal with Saudi Arabia, the prolonged war in Gaza is running the clock down.
2. Whatever interest Netanyahu has in Israel's long term security, it is outweighed by his own personal desire to stay in office and out of jail.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
Yes
15%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Kuwait
5%
(0%)
Oman
7%
(0%)
Qatar
20%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
A Venezuelan ground invasion of attack on Guyanese offshore wells would risk reprisals that could result in a regime change in Venezuela, so Maduro, whose grip on power is already contested, is not serious.
Guyana will not want to negotiate with a Venezuelan government that is too unstable to stick to any agreement.