RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 07:18PM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	95%	9%	+86%	-71%
No	5%	91%	-86%	+71%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 07, 2024 06:17PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
Oman	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	5%	2%	+3%	-1%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 07, 2024 06:30PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	0%	3%	-3%	-1%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	0%	5%	-5%	-3%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

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