RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO?	-0.001149
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe?	-0.000022
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	-0.002333
Dec 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 3, 2022 and Dec 3, 2022)	0.00002
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM UTC	Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?	-0.000628
Nov 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 3, 2022 and Nov 3, 2022)	0.0
Oct 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022)	0.0
Aug 09, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22?	0.028702
Aug 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 3, 2022 and Aug 3, 2022)	0.000032
Aug 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	0.052435
Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM UTC	Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?	-0.022616
Jul 27, 2022 12:59PM UTC	How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?	-0.000294
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?	0.308775
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	0.072239
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022?	-0.021163
Jul 06, 2022 03:59AM UTC	What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?	0.293111
Jul 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 3, 2022 and Jul 3, 2022)	0.0
Jul 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC	How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	-0.08268
Jun 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 3, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022)	-0.000068
Jun 02, 2022 01:40PM UTC	What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?	-0.033119

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