israakhan

To even get to a point of talking about normalization, it took a very long time. Given the current war in Gaza by Israel, it seems very unlikely that this normalization will happen any time soon. If anything, I think it pushes that scenario further back. 

Given the situation right now in Gaza, I don't think these countries will recognize Israel as a state. They haven't for this many years, so it seems unlikely that after the current circumstances, they will in the near future. I also think that if they were to, they would receive even more lash back from other Muslim countries and the worldwide Muslim population.

For my first forecast, I will go 50/50. There have been attacks by the Houthis and also threats, so it can occur. However, it is also very likely that such an attach will be averted. 

Given the current situation between Israel and Gaza, this can kind of go either way. It's hard to say for sure, but Ii think it is more likely than not that at least at the moment we will see an attack/

Lowering as we get closer to the end of 2023. It doesn't seem likely they will introduce anything by the end of the year.

Recent news shows that "Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated that his country will stick to a path of peaceful development". If this holds true, it Australia won't need to impose a level 3 or 4 travel advisory.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-17/china-s-xi-calls-for-regional-peace-as-he-wraps-up-us-trip