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New Prediction
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
1%
(0%)
2024 Q2
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
updating with time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
Decreasing because of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
Discounting by time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
Assuming a shutdown approximately once every 3-4 years for at least one day (estimating 3.5 years), and ~49 days left, we get a rate of 4%.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
2023 Q2
0%
2023 Q3
0%
2023 Q4
0%
2024 Q1
1%
2024 Q2
The share has been growing over time, and I find it highly unlikely that any shock that impacts North America's purchases of semi conductors wouldn't impact other countries.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
There isn't currently much social pressure to label text as AI generated. Additionally, labeling text as AI is currently fairly inaccurate. However, as there are 4 different platforms here, I do think there's a decent chance that one company makes this decision.
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