Confirmed previous forecast
-0.062585
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Artificial Intelligence,
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Science & Technology
Most Active Topics:
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
1%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
updating with time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
Decreasing because of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
Discounting by time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
Assuming a shutdown approximately once every 3-4 years for at least one day (estimating 3.5 years), and ~49 days left, we get a rate of 4%.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
2023 Q2
0%
2023 Q3
0%
2023 Q4
0%
2024 Q1
1%
2024 Q2
The share has been growing over time, and I find it highly unlikely that any shock that impacts North America's purchases of semi conductors wouldn't impact other countries.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
There isn't currently much social pressure to label text as AI generated. Additionally, labeling text as AI is currently fairly inaccurate. However, as there are 4 different platforms here, I do think there's a decent chance that one company makes this decision.
Files
New Badge
