If the war in Ukrainian was going to hurt him enough for him to loose presidency, it would have happened already. The war is hurting him and the russian economy is suffuring, but the war is not going bad enough and his hold on Russia is too strong.
0.108116
Relative Brier Score
2
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0
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Yes
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There are no new changes big enough to change the calculus areound hte red sea coming, so I doubt it'll happen any time soon.