RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM UTC	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	-0.049576
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.073545
Feb 05, 2021 05:35PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?	-0.01212
Feb 01, 2021 02:48PM UTC	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.12739
Feb 01, 2021 02:47PM UTC	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.003443
Jan 04, 2021 01:58PM UTC	What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020?	0.154461
Jan 04, 2021 01:49PM UTC	What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.041269
Nov 03, 2020 05:49PM UTC	Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?	0.070069
Nov 03, 2020 02:25PM UTC	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	0.303534
Oct 31, 2020 03:04PM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?	0.063391
Oct 21, 2020 02:47PM UTC	What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.295951
Oct 20, 2020 01:16PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.029912
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?	0.373025
Oct 01, 2020 06:17PM UTC	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.020201
Oct 01, 2020 02:37PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.03354
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	0.006063
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	0.035963
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM UTC	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	0.583421
Sep 01, 2020 01:31PM UTC	Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?	0.039402
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?	-0.178105

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