Confirmed previous forecast
2.076804
Relative Brier Score
171
Forecasts
94
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 180 | 171 | 180 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 91 | 81 | 91 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 27 | 25 | 27 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 103 | 94 | 103 |
Definitions |
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 24, 2024 01:02PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 24, 2024 to Dec 24, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Jun 24, 2024 to Dec 24, 2024
Holding at 1%.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 20, 2024 05:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-5%)
Yes
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024
85%
(+5%)
No
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024
Dropping on lack of any news.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
0%
(-5%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Ru doesn't seem to be producing enough of either system to even meet their own requirements.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 20, 2024 01:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 20, 2024 to Jun 20, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Jun 20, 2024 to Jun 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 20, 2024 01:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-5%)
Yes
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024
85%
(+5%)
No
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024
Dropping on lack of ME peace progress.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Dropping on lack of progress.