Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 180 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 91 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 26 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 103 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 20, 2024 05:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-5%)
Yes
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024
85%
(+5%)
No
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024
Dropping on lack of any news.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
0%
(-5%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Ru doesn't seem to be producing enough of either system to even meet their own requirements.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 20, 2024 01:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 20, 2024 to Jun 20, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Jun 20, 2024 to Jun 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 20, 2024 01:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-5%)
Yes
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024
85%
(+5%)
No
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024
Dropping on lack of ME peace progress.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
25%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(-4%)
Kazakhstan
Dropping on Kazakhstan (on examining their politics, don't see any immediate conflict with Ru).
Staying high on Georgia, although no new news out of there since the passing of that anti-foreign agents law. Feels like it could escalate in the next year or so.
Files
Dropping on lack of progress.