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0.35558
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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0%
Yes
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0%
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He is not on the current list
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0%
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He is not on the current list
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1%
Yes
Annual risk of war is probably around 1%
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10%
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It is unlikely for China to move away from zero-covid, especially to announce it explicitly. But, we can't make the possibility too low since unexpected policy changes in China are always possible, and the government is already moving towards reopening.
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Recent public statements by Sun Chunlan and others imply that the policy is being phased out, but it is unclear if it will be publicly announced by the end of December.