He is not on the current list
0.35558
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
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| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
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Future Bowl
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
He is not on the current list
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
He is not on the current list
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Annual risk of war is probably around 1%
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
It is unlikely for China to move away from zero-covid, especially to announce it explicitly. But, we can't make the possibility too low since unexpected policy changes in China are always possible, and the government is already moving towards reopening.
Files
Recent public statements by Sun Chunlan and others imply that the policy is being phased out, but it is unclear if it will be publicly announced by the end of December.