RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
May 25, 2022 02:09PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?	0.068727
May 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 17, 2022 and May 17, 2022)	0.016387
May 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jun 2022	0.32922
May 06, 2022 09:00PM UTC	What will be the end of day closing price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on 6 May 2022?	-0.014728
May 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022)	0.013133
May 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?	0.025071
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	0.688361
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	-0.136041
Apr 27, 2022 09:00PM UTC	When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD?	-0.537599
Apr 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 17, 2022 and Apr 17, 2022)	0.049006
Apr 15, 2022 01:10PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - May 2022	0.236932
Apr 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022)	0.059303
Apr 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	0.069255
Mar 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Mar 17, 2022)	0.095304
Mar 16, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial?	-0.356031
Mar 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2022	0.024641
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?	-0.070448
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?	0.186411
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.26201
Feb 24, 2022 03:00PM UTC	What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022?	0.077381

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