RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022)	0.0481
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM UTC	Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021)	0.151778
Feb 11, 2022 10:00PM UTC	How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years? - 2021 H2	-0.008926
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	0.096024
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?	0.302157
Feb 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2021 H2	0.106875
Jan 31, 2022 03:35PM UTC	How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2021 H2	0.078627
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM UTC	How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.528825
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM UTC	How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021	0.251753
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM UTC	How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021	-0.031818
Jan 31, 2022 02:49PM UTC	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.153365
Jan 31, 2022 02:48PM UTC	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.194859
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM UTC	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?	-0.089862
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	0.303571
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	0.024255
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	0.187316
Jan 04, 2022 01:22PM UTC	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.17076
Jan 04, 2022 01:19PM UTC	How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?	-0.058934
Jan 04, 2022 01:16PM UTC	How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?	0.090645
Jan 04, 2022 01:10PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.038813

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